Red Queens and Increasing Returns

Thornburg (2008) defines a Red Queen as two technologies competing for the same market share where in the process all other competitors are left behind (p.12).

Two years ago, when I had to review movies for my undergraduate media class, I had to go to a movie rental store, now I just watch the selected movie digitally on my computer using Netflix. In "Tech’s Long Tail," Chris Anderson (2004) notes that new technologies such as Netflix were able to capitalize on the popularity of other technological advances to rise and become popular. Netflix is the Red Queen in the movie rental business, because it used an existing rental market, and was able to understand the when and where the technology was heading. The development of DVDs popularized the home movie theater and because of the DVD size, it was easy to mail, which made Netflix the Red Queen. Currently, many movies can be streamed directly to TVs or computers from Netflix, which will eventually most likely be transferred to an online streaming option which will lessen the cost of mailing. However, this will occur according to what the agreement between Netflix and the move companies will be. Currently, since movies' large profit margin is in DVD sales, Netflix has agreed not to rent new movies for 28 days.

Netflix continues to be the Red Queen in the movie renting business as it surpasses its competitors and adds new features. The latest one is the ability to add, with no additional cost for its members, Netflix' Apps for iPhone and iPod touch which would allow members to stream movies (http://wn.com/News_Update_Netflix's_App_For_iPhone_Now_Allows_Video_To_Stream_To_TV). Netflix is currently partnered with Amazon and both companies have increased their business, by also adding the ability to purchase new releases online, using Amazon's cloud computing (http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/05/netflix_on_amazon_cloud.html).

On McLuhan’s tetrad, DVDs are currently on the Enhance tetrad and the video-on-demand option is currently in the Reverses tetrad. However, as Netflix continues to move to other clouds (Amazon, with option to purchase new releases), in the near future, the tetrads will shift and video-on-demand will shift to enhance the tetrad as DVDs will move to Obsolete tetrads and as their will not be a need to leave the house to purchase and view a movie.

Reference:

Anderson, C. (2004). Tech’s long tail [Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html
Becker, J. (2010, November 22). The official Netflix blog [Web log message]. Retrieved from http://blog.netflix.com/2010/11/new-plan-for-watching-instantly-plus.html

Thornburg, D. (2008). Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration. 

The Disruptive Power of Second Life

Every time an attention-grabbing new technology emerges on the market, which has useful and fascinating features, it has an ability to modify pedagogy. These technologies not only change how instructional material is being conveyed, but they also affect how educational institutions do their business, in addition to impacting the curriculum and instructions.

In the video, “Disruptive Technology,” Dr. Thornberg (n.d.) states that technologies sprout quickly and disrupt existing technologies. Christensen (2002) says that an opportunity is generated for innovators to create Disruptive Technology when they seize technological territory that the leaders of existing technologies don’t want. Christensen (2002) uses the example of mini-computers and how they became the disruptive technology; specifically, where Hewlett-Packard got disrupted by Sun, and Sun by Compaq, and Compaq by Dell.

Christensen (2002) breaks down disruptive technology into two types: One that does not create a new market, but changes the product, and the second is a new technology that disrupts existing technology and pushes it out. Amazon Kindle is a good example of a disrupting technology that first took over the market of e-book readers, and popularized the e-readers. As bandwidth becomes more available, more applications are emerging. The price of Kindle DX Graphite (3rd Gen) reader is down which also is more affordable to target customers who could not afford it before. Furthermore, the product is better than its original 1st generation design which was released in 2007.

Another example of disruptive technology that is also effects educational instructions and has social implications is The Second Life Education (http://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/Second_Life_Education).

There is a difference between the web and virtual worlds. When using virtual worlds, the users can create and incorporate Avatars that represents themselves as in real life, or they can create a character with a different identity.  Furthermore, they can be a part of a group or create their own worlds. Rosedale (2008) compares the idea of Second Life to small transistors, which when they came out, created a new set of customers, specifically teenagers who could listen to music of their choice privately.

Second Life has many registered users and many of them are learners. As a result, some businesses are taking advantage of this market and are trying to target younger customers. An example is an online company that teaches English which incorporates Second Life (http://www.languagelab.com/). These virtual world trends are incorporated by institutions, which incorporate lecture rooms and meeting halls. Scotland’s University uses Second Life http://edudirectory.secondlife.com/listing/show/listing_id/128  to generate another way for learners to participate and generate learning.

Since Second Life has decided to raise its prices for educators and has also closed its teen-only networks, a migration has started by educators from Second Life to OpenSims.

OpenSims is a disruptive technology which uses a previously created program called “Alice in Wonderland;” an open-source technology. It offers virtual environments similar to Second Life (http://thejournal.com/articles/2011/01/11/next-stop-open-sim.aspx). “However, OpenSimulator is neither a clone of Second Life's server nor does it aim at becoming such a clone” (http://opensimulator.org/wiki/Main_Page).

These disrupting technologies are continuously transforming educational tools.

References:

Christensen, C. (2002). The innovation economy: How technology is transforming existing industries and creating new ones [Video]. Retrieved from http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/108.

Rosedale, P. (2008). Second Life [Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/the_inspiration_of_second_life.html

Linden Labs http://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/Second_Life_Education

Thornburg, D. (Producer). (nd). Disruptive Technology. [Video Podcast]. Laureate Education, Inc.

Rhymes of History

Mark Twain says that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. 

Dr. Thornburg similarly describes one of the forces that drive emerging technology as “Rhymes of history,” which is a term he uses to define new technology which has emerged due to the impact felt many years before from another technology, or when a technology rekindles something from the past.

In Kevin Kelly’s speech, "The Next 5,000 Days of the Web," he discusses the impact the web has on society and states that: “We will increasingly be dependent on the Internet and it will increasingly be dependent on us.” We already depend on many technological aspects of the Internet, such as using different mobile technologies, connecting with each other, and even communication with banks, schools, and government offices. We use the cloud computing to store, retrieve, and transmit data, in addition to communicating; and new technologies are continuously emerging.

In tune with Kelly’s concepts of embodiment, restructuring, and codependency, we can look at the development of Skype as part of a “rhymes of history.” Video phones have always been a part of collective imagination which can be seen from their use in the Jetson cartoons, and the James Bond and Star Trek movies. In earlier times, drawings of future princes and princesses were carried by messengers to arrange marriages around continents; we always wanted to see the person with whom we are communicating. From the idea of the Telephonoscope, came personal video phones and Skype, where users can transmit live images. Videophones were mostly developed due to broadband Internet technology. As cloud technology advances, Kelly states that the Internet will become more personalized, where we will all have a global profile that will be our identification on the Internet, which means that we and others could connect and “see” us.

 










CNN Tech (March 2, 2010) ran an interesting article on high-speed Internet, television and Skype and whether it could be combined to create a videophone TV: “Skype on TV: Will the videophone finally be reality?” (http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/03/02/skype.on.tv.videophone/index.html)

The latest article on CNN Tech (January 4, 2011) “5 gadget trends to watch at CES” (Consumer Electronics Show) showcase technological tools whose meteoric technological advances were possible due to the development of the Internet and cloud computing.  http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/gaming.gadgets/01/04/ces.expected.trends/index.html?hpt=C2

Reference:

Friedman, N. (2009). The high cost of computers? U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 135(3), 90−91.

Kelly, K. (2007, December). The next 5,000 days of the web [speech]. Speech delivered at the EG 2007 Conference, Los Angeles. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

Pew Internet & American Life Project. (2010, June 11). The future of cloud computing. Retrieved from http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1623/future-cloud-computing-technology-experts

Thornburg, D. (Producer). (nd). Rhymes of history. [Video Podcast]. Laureate Education, Inc.

Thornburg, D. (Producer). (nd). Six forces that drive emerging technology. [Video Podcast]. Laureate Education, Inc.