Red Queens and Increasing Returns

Thornburg (2008) defines a Red Queen as two technologies competing for the same market share where in the process all other competitors are left behind (p.12).

Two years ago, when I had to review movies for my undergraduate media class, I had to go to a movie rental store, now I just watch the selected movie digitally on my computer using Netflix. In "Tech’s Long Tail," Chris Anderson (2004) notes that new technologies such as Netflix were able to capitalize on the popularity of other technological advances to rise and become popular. Netflix is the Red Queen in the movie rental business, because it used an existing rental market, and was able to understand the when and where the technology was heading. The development of DVDs popularized the home movie theater and because of the DVD size, it was easy to mail, which made Netflix the Red Queen. Currently, many movies can be streamed directly to TVs or computers from Netflix, which will eventually most likely be transferred to an online streaming option which will lessen the cost of mailing. However, this will occur according to what the agreement between Netflix and the move companies will be. Currently, since movies' large profit margin is in DVD sales, Netflix has agreed not to rent new movies for 28 days.

Netflix continues to be the Red Queen in the movie renting business as it surpasses its competitors and adds new features. The latest one is the ability to add, with no additional cost for its members, Netflix' Apps for iPhone and iPod touch which would allow members to stream movies (http://wn.com/News_Update_Netflix's_App_For_iPhone_Now_Allows_Video_To_Stream_To_TV). Netflix is currently partnered with Amazon and both companies have increased their business, by also adding the ability to purchase new releases online, using Amazon's cloud computing (http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/05/netflix_on_amazon_cloud.html).

On McLuhan’s tetrad, DVDs are currently on the Enhance tetrad and the video-on-demand option is currently in the Reverses tetrad. However, as Netflix continues to move to other clouds (Amazon, with option to purchase new releases), in the near future, the tetrads will shift and video-on-demand will shift to enhance the tetrad as DVDs will move to Obsolete tetrads and as their will not be a need to leave the house to purchase and view a movie.

Reference:

Anderson, C. (2004). Tech’s long tail [Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html
Becker, J. (2010, November 22). The official Netflix blog [Web log message]. Retrieved from http://blog.netflix.com/2010/11/new-plan-for-watching-instantly-plus.html

Thornburg, D. (2008). Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration. 

The Disruptive Power of Second Life

Every time an attention-grabbing new technology emerges on the market, which has useful and fascinating features, it has an ability to modify pedagogy. These technologies not only change how instructional material is being conveyed, but they also affect how educational institutions do their business, in addition to impacting the curriculum and instructions.

In the video, “Disruptive Technology,” Dr. Thornberg (n.d.) states that technologies sprout quickly and disrupt existing technologies. Christensen (2002) says that an opportunity is generated for innovators to create Disruptive Technology when they seize technological territory that the leaders of existing technologies don’t want. Christensen (2002) uses the example of mini-computers and how they became the disruptive technology; specifically, where Hewlett-Packard got disrupted by Sun, and Sun by Compaq, and Compaq by Dell.

Christensen (2002) breaks down disruptive technology into two types: One that does not create a new market, but changes the product, and the second is a new technology that disrupts existing technology and pushes it out. Amazon Kindle is a good example of a disrupting technology that first took over the market of e-book readers, and popularized the e-readers. As bandwidth becomes more available, more applications are emerging. The price of Kindle DX Graphite (3rd Gen) reader is down which also is more affordable to target customers who could not afford it before. Furthermore, the product is better than its original 1st generation design which was released in 2007.

Another example of disruptive technology that is also effects educational instructions and has social implications is The Second Life Education (http://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/Second_Life_Education).

There is a difference between the web and virtual worlds. When using virtual worlds, the users can create and incorporate Avatars that represents themselves as in real life, or they can create a character with a different identity.  Furthermore, they can be a part of a group or create their own worlds. Rosedale (2008) compares the idea of Second Life to small transistors, which when they came out, created a new set of customers, specifically teenagers who could listen to music of their choice privately.

Second Life has many registered users and many of them are learners. As a result, some businesses are taking advantage of this market and are trying to target younger customers. An example is an online company that teaches English which incorporates Second Life (http://www.languagelab.com/). These virtual world trends are incorporated by institutions, which incorporate lecture rooms and meeting halls. Scotland’s University uses Second Life http://edudirectory.secondlife.com/listing/show/listing_id/128  to generate another way for learners to participate and generate learning.

Since Second Life has decided to raise its prices for educators and has also closed its teen-only networks, a migration has started by educators from Second Life to OpenSims.

OpenSims is a disruptive technology which uses a previously created program called “Alice in Wonderland;” an open-source technology. It offers virtual environments similar to Second Life (http://thejournal.com/articles/2011/01/11/next-stop-open-sim.aspx). “However, OpenSimulator is neither a clone of Second Life's server nor does it aim at becoming such a clone” (http://opensimulator.org/wiki/Main_Page).

These disrupting technologies are continuously transforming educational tools.

References:

Christensen, C. (2002). The innovation economy: How technology is transforming existing industries and creating new ones [Video]. Retrieved from http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/108.

Rosedale, P. (2008). Second Life [Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/the_inspiration_of_second_life.html

Linden Labs http://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/Second_Life_Education

Thornburg, D. (Producer). (nd). Disruptive Technology. [Video Podcast]. Laureate Education, Inc.

Rhymes of History

Mark Twain says that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. 

Dr. Thornburg similarly describes one of the forces that drive emerging technology as “Rhymes of history,” which is a term he uses to define new technology which has emerged due to the impact felt many years before from another technology, or when a technology rekindles something from the past.

In Kevin Kelly’s speech, "The Next 5,000 Days of the Web," he discusses the impact the web has on society and states that: “We will increasingly be dependent on the Internet and it will increasingly be dependent on us.” We already depend on many technological aspects of the Internet, such as using different mobile technologies, connecting with each other, and even communication with banks, schools, and government offices. We use the cloud computing to store, retrieve, and transmit data, in addition to communicating; and new technologies are continuously emerging.

In tune with Kelly’s concepts of embodiment, restructuring, and codependency, we can look at the development of Skype as part of a “rhymes of history.” Video phones have always been a part of collective imagination which can be seen from their use in the Jetson cartoons, and the James Bond and Star Trek movies. In earlier times, drawings of future princes and princesses were carried by messengers to arrange marriages around continents; we always wanted to see the person with whom we are communicating. From the idea of the Telephonoscope, came personal video phones and Skype, where users can transmit live images. Videophones were mostly developed due to broadband Internet technology. As cloud technology advances, Kelly states that the Internet will become more personalized, where we will all have a global profile that will be our identification on the Internet, which means that we and others could connect and “see” us.

 










CNN Tech (March 2, 2010) ran an interesting article on high-speed Internet, television and Skype and whether it could be combined to create a videophone TV: “Skype on TV: Will the videophone finally be reality?” (http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/03/02/skype.on.tv.videophone/index.html)

The latest article on CNN Tech (January 4, 2011) “5 gadget trends to watch at CES” (Consumer Electronics Show) showcase technological tools whose meteoric technological advances were possible due to the development of the Internet and cloud computing.  http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/gaming.gadgets/01/04/ces.expected.trends/index.html?hpt=C2

Reference:

Friedman, N. (2009). The high cost of computers? U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 135(3), 90−91.

Kelly, K. (2007, December). The next 5,000 days of the web [speech]. Speech delivered at the EG 2007 Conference, Los Angeles. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

Pew Internet & American Life Project. (2010, June 11). The future of cloud computing. Retrieved from http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1623/future-cloud-computing-technology-experts

Thornburg, D. (Producer). (nd). Rhymes of history. [Video Podcast]. Laureate Education, Inc.

Thornburg, D. (Producer). (nd). Six forces that drive emerging technology. [Video Podcast]. Laureate Education, Inc.

Module 2 - Emerging Technologies Tetrad

If few years ago, blogs were only viewed as a journal on a cloud, now they are offering the option of rich site summary (RSS) feeds where readers can receive immediate feedback if there is a new post.  However, blog features are still carrying over many technical features of an email.  As cloud computing continues to expand, many features of blogging will start to change as well in order to accommodate new users.

An article in the New York Times  E-Mail Gets an Instant Makeover (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/21/technology/21email.html?_r=2 ) states that teenagers are preferring a faster and immediate response to their messages, which is lacking on Blogs. Therefore, I think Twitter is the cluster and chain to Blogs and WordPress, where users can post “on the go,” although, they can only post up to 140 characters. The chain is formed because the Twitters might eventually completely replace Blogs in the near future and it does bring to mind journal writing. As a cluster, Twitter shares the same laws with Blogs.

Reference:

Elon University/Pew Internet Project. (n.d.). Imagining the Internet: A history and forecast: Back 150 timeline. Retrieved July 22, 2009, from http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/back150years.pdf

Pew Internet & American Life Project. (2010, June 11). The future of cloud computing. Retrieved from http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1623/future-cloud-computing-technology-experts

Thornburg, D. D. (2008b). Emerging technologies and McLuhan's Laws of Media. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Emerging and Future Technologies

SITTING ON A CLOUD

In the last few years, the idea of cloud computing has taken over individuals and organizations.

The way we save and backup our files is changing which is opening new doors to collaboration among professionals, students, and organizations. Our storage media has evolved from floppy disks, CDs, flash drives, external hard drives and other storage devices. With the cloud, there is no need to carry all of the files with the threat of the loss of a storage media which translates into lost work. Now, it all “sits” on a cloud in a centralized location which can easily be retrieved with an Internet connection. Cloud computing not only changes how we store and retrieve applications and files, but also how we communicate and share them with other members of our group, and how organizations restructure and modernize their IT infrastructure. An example is Dropbox.com, a free option to save files on the cloud and which also allows users to share particular files with others.
Furthermore, according to a report by Gartner: “By 2016, all Global 2000 companies will use public cloud services” (http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1465614). In cloud computing, there is also a cost advantage for organizations and for individual use. It is more cost effective to use cloud services than purchasing and maintaining additional computer processors and constructing large data centers on college campuses. Using the cloud helps with regards to short and long term projects that demand additional computer requirements and software applications. Also, learners do not have to rely on computer labs and to purchase expensive applications for particular classes, but instead, users have access on-demand to data.
Furthermore, cloud computing creates a real opportunity for collaboration among learners and administration within a classroom, campus, or even globally without any delay where they can share ideas, work on projects, and research in addition to minimizing additional operation costs.
However, one of the main concerns of using cloud computing is the security of the data and the continuation of the services. There are always cyber attacks occurring and it is important for the users to be aware of all the pitfalls of cloud computing. However, there is an increased danger of misplacing and losing USB drives which is more common, rather than incurring a cyber attack! Another issue is if there is no Internet connection, you cannot retrieve your document, although cell phones are creating another way to go around that problem.

The use of cloud computing in education should eliminate students’ need to carry homework assignment and projects on USB drives or in the form of papers. Educators will have the option to view students’ assignments online and post their assignments there as well. This will also help parents to have a better handle of what is covered in class and the students’ progress.

In order for the saving and retrieving of files from the cloud to be successful, educators have to be active participants in it! Rogers (2003) states that how the emerging idea is communicated can affect the rate of adaptation of the new technology (p.222); meaning, if the idea comes from the organization itself, this factor can influence its acceptance by the parties (p.356). According to Gardner 2010 forecast report of strategic planning assumptions (http://www.1105info.com/t.do?id=6589564:17617519): “by 2013, 75% of higher education institutions will incorporate social software in distance learning.” In this case, educators will be less hesitant to implement new technology, especially because there would be no need to purchase additional technology by the schools.
Therefore, I believe that social network integration in the classrooms will increase over time. http://www.dropbox.com/ and other similar options of a cloud computing, where learners can save their information on a cloud and share files with peers and educators, will be incorporated as part of a class curriculum and will help eliminate the carrying of school work in terms of paper and external files for students.
The question is what would make this technology even better. It can improve only if it will be used in education, as new ideas are generated by educators, it will continue to improve the product.

Reference:
Rogers, E. (2003). Diffusion of innovations. New York: Free Press.

Thornburg, D. (2009). Current trends in educational technology. Retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/Courses/14936/crs-wueduc8812-3526271/when_is_a_technology_emergent.pdf


http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Quarterly/EDUCAUSEQuarterlyMagazineVolum/CollaborationinHigherEducation/199373

http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE%2BQuarterly/EDUCAUSEQuarterlyMagazineVolum/CloudComputing/213724

Keller's ARCS Model

We all want new technological tools to be used to enhance productivity and promote creativity at work and school. However, the tools themselves cannot do the job; students, employees, pedagogues have to be motivated to use these tools properly. Motivation is a main aspect to achieving a successful outcome at school and or work.  The best teaching methods will not succeed if the student is not motivated to learn, but if his only goal is to pass the test, and at work, the unmotivated employee will only do the job required without putting any additional thought into projects.
Keller’s ARCS model points out important points such as the need to grab a student’s attention, to develop relevance to matters with which the student is familiar, to help students build confidence through encouragement and setting attainable goals during the learning process. Moreover, satisfaction is achieved through positive feedback and rewards for students and employees.
An example is my class where students are currently working through the service learning program on developing a website for one of the local chapters for the TSA organization.  To achieve the desired outcome, students have to be wholly motivated and understand the importance of the project.  Following Keller's ARCS Model helps in generating interest by the students which inspires motivation.  For attention, curiosity was stimulated toward the project. Students work collaboratively and build on each other's strengths. Moreover, through brainstorming and generating ideas, their confidence in their abilities grow. Students understand the relevance of the project to their professional development. The project is relevant because the students build on their previous knowledge, use creativity, learn through researching and developing new skills which they share in their groups and outside their group with other class members. As the semester is coming to conclusion, so is the project. The confidence has been developed in the students through the project because they controlled the process and the final outcome is result of their work.  I know that students are motivated, because at the end of the each class, they continue to work and do not run out.

Reference:
Driscoll, M. P. (2005). Psychology of learning for instruction (3rd ed.). Boston: Pearson Education, Inc.
Keller, J. M. (2006, June 20). Motivation Design. Retrieved January 26, 2010, from : http://www.arcsmodel.com/home.htm

Connectivism

Through the use of social networks, my learning is not limited to one location or one group of people. Due to social networks, my circle from where my knowledge is generated has expanded. I learn not only from my close circle of co-workers or friends, but also from people I have never met, but with whom I share a common professional interest. We exchange knowledge through listserv or through other social networks such as YouTube and blogs. The exchange of innovative thinking is made easier through social networks since new ideas can be easily debated and discussed without any particular limitations or boundaries such as time and location.
Their is no one particular tool which has facilitated learning more than any other as I find the web to be is a vast resource of information. There are several options as to where to find immediate answers or to look for information as to where the best answers are. The first is to post the question on one of the social networks where there is an interest of the same topic and usually an instantaneous response will be generated. Another option is to use Open University such as http://oyc.yale.edu/; I don’t have to be enrolled in a particular class to listen to a lecture if I have a particular interest on a topic and wish to expand my knowledge.

Educause Learning Initiative Annual Meeting 2008